Baytex’s Big Gamble on the Eagle Ford Shale

Baytex’s big bet on the Eagle Ford shale is a game changer for the company

| More on:

Canadian domiciled intermediate heavy oil producer Baytex (TSX:BTE)(NYSE:BTE) has made a big bet on the U.S. shale oil boom and the prolific Eagle Ford shale in south Texas.

It has taken this bet by announcing its offer to acquire Australian junior oil explorer and producer Aurora Oil & Gas (TSX:AEF), which operates solely in the Eagle Ford for AU$4.10 per share. This values Aurora at a 54% premium to its share price before the deal was announced.

As part of the deal, Baytex will also assume Aurora’s debt of around $744 million, giving the transaction a total value of $2.6 billion or 1.5 times Aurora’s current enterprise-value.

What does the acquisition mean for Baytex?
This acquisition is accretive for Baytex and will be a transformative event for the company, providing it with a source of U.S.-based high quality light tight crude.

Typically this crude trades close to the price of West Texas Intermediate and is not subject to the same price differentials affecting Canadian light crude (Edmonton Par) or Canadian heavy crude (West Canadian Select). At the end of January 2014, both were trading at significant discounts to West Texas Intermediate of $16 and $33 per barrel respectively.

As part of the deal Baytex will assume ownership of one of the most impressive and prolific acreages in the Eagle Ford, Aurora’s 22,200 net contiguous acres in prolific Sugarkane Field, sitting in the heart of the oil rich Eagle Ford shale. The acquisition will provide Baytex with a diversified production base and improve its production mix, reducing its dependence on Canadian heavy oil as a means of generating revenue.

The improvement in Baytex’s production mix can be seen when we compare the makeup of its production mix pre- and post-acquisition. Light oil production in particular will jump significantly, going from 11% to 21% of total hydrocarbons produced as we can see.

BTE Production Make-up 080214

The acquisition will also boost Baytex’s oil reserves by around 167 million barrels and boost production by around 24,000 gross barrels per day of high margin light crude. Allowing Baytex to generate significantly more revenue and boost its margin per barrel of crude and profitability.

As such Baytex management expects that fund flow from operations will grow by 17% as a result of the acquisition, ultimately boosting its bottom line and eventually causing earnings per share to jump significantly.

What is the reward for Baytex shareholders?
The increased funds flow will leave Baytex well positioned to increase its monthly dividend, and already the company has acknowledged this. Baytex has committed to boosting its monthly dividend by 9% to 24 cents per share if the acquisition proceeds. This will see Baytex shareholders rewarded with an attractive dividend yield of just over 7%.

Foolish bottom line
This acquisition is a win-win for Baytex and its shareholders. It allows it to diversify its asset and production base, while reducing its dependence on lower margin, high cost Canadian heavy oil. This should see funds flow from operations and margins per barrel grow significantly, boosting its profitability.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Matt Smith does not own shares of any companies mentioned.

More on Investing

CI Financial goes private
Bank Stocks

CI Financial Wants to Go Private: What Investors Need to Know

Will the deal actually go through, or might it face government scrutiny?

Read more »

Canadian dollars are printed
Dividend Stocks

Transform Your TFSA Into a Cash-Generating Machine With Just $28,000

Canadians can turn their TFSAs into a cash-generating machine with money equivalent to four years’ contribution limits.

Read more »

Investor wonders if it's safe to buy stocks now
Tech Stocks

Balancing the Risks and Rewards of Investing in AI Stocks

Choosing a safe AI stock can be challenging if you need help understanding the underlying technology, business model, and, by…

Read more »

A Canada Pension Plan Statement of Contributions with a 100 dollar banknote and dollar coins.
Retirement

Want the Maximum $1,346.60 CPP? Here’s the Income You Need

Most CPP users receive the average pension but have ways to boost their retirement income.

Read more »

open vault at bank
Bank Stocks

RBC vs. TD: Which Canadian Bank Stock Is the Better Buy?

Let's dive into whether Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) or Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY) are the best picks in the banking…

Read more »

stock research, analyze data
Stocks for Beginners

Prediction: 2 Top Stock Picks to Beat the Market For Years to Come

Are you wondering what Canadian stocks could deliver predictable long-term returns? These two stocks are worth a bet for the…

Read more »

Silver coins fall into a piggy bank.
Dividend Stocks

Here’s the Average RRSP Balance at 45 in Canada

The RRSP is a strong tool for investors, but only if you invest in top stocks like this ETF for…

Read more »

Start line on the highway
Dividend Stocks

Retirement Planning: Dividends vs. Growth (Or How About Both?)

Building a healthy mix of income and growth potential in your retirement portfolio is essential. Even if you can't access…

Read more »