Why I Am Bullish on Vermillion Energy Inc. Despite the Rout in Crude Prices

Vermillion Energy Inc. (TSX:VET)(NYSE:VET) appears undervalued after the rout in oil stocks, making it a solid long-term acquisition for the patient investor.

| More on:
The Motley Fool

Not surprisingly Canada’s energy companies have fallen into disfavour with investors because of the rout in oil prices. This now sees West Texas Intermediate or WTI trading at $46 per barrel and Brent at $48 per barrel, their lowest points in five-and-a-half years.

But despite these significantly softer crude prices a number of companies in the patch are still profitable and with the sharp sell-off of energy stocks, there are some attractive buying opportunities. One I believe that stands out is Vermillion Energy Inc. (TSX:VET)(NYSE:VET). Let me explain why.

Appears attractively priced

Since the rout in oil prices commenced around 6 months ago Vermillion’s share price has fallen by 37%, leaving it with some very attractive valuation metrics, including an enterprise-value or EV of seven times EBITDA.

Globally diversified portfolio of quality light oil assets

Vermilion has a global portfolio of light oil and natural gas liquid rich assets in Western Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Australia that have oil reserves totalling 198 million barrels.

With a large amount of its oil reserves and production located outside of North America, Vermillion is able to obtain Brent pricing for a considerable portion of its oil production. This gives it an important advantage over many of its peers with assets solely located in Canada, because historically Brent has traded at a premium to WTI. At the time of writing, this premium has diminished considerably from being as high as 9% in mid-2014 to now be 3%, but it still gives Vermillion a pricing advantage over many of its Canadian peers.

More importantly the company has targeted production growth of 5% annually and despite slashing 2015 capital expenditures by 22%, it expects to beat that target this year, with production forecast to increase by 15% compared to 2014.

A strong balance sheet

Another of Vermillion’s key strengths is its solid balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter 2014, it had a high degree of liquidity with $142 million of cash on hand, along with a low degree of leverage with net debt of less than two times its operating cash flow.

This provides the company with considerable financial flexibility and leaves it well positioned to weather the current weakness in crude prices.

A juicy dividend yield

Unlike many of its peers Vermillion has not cut its dividend, leaving it with a tasty 5.5% dividend yield and a sustainable payout ratio of 71%.

More importantly in its 2015 guidance, the company flagged that it is committed to maintaining its dividend even if crude prices slip further, and it will do this by making further cuts to capital expenditures. This bodes well for the strength of its balance sheet and the sustainability of the dividend, making it hard for investors to resist that juicy 5.5% yield.

What does the future hold?

Investors need to be aware that this investment comes with risks, including considerable short-term downside if crude prices slide lower. But the long-term prospects appear solid, with the company looking far too cheap in comparison to the quality of its assets, steadily growing production and strong balance sheet. This means investors will need to be patient as they wait for oil prices to rebound, but while doing so they can continue to enjoy the sustainable and juicy dividend yield.

Fool contributor Matt Smith has no position in any stocks mentioned.

More on Dividend Stocks

TFSA (Tax free savings account) acronym on wooden cubes on the background of stacks of coins
Dividend Stocks

The Canadian Dividend Stocks I’d Be Most Comfortable Holding in a TFSA Forever

These three Canadian dividend stocks could be ideal long-term TFSA holdings.

Read more »

Woman in private jet airplane
Dividend Stocks

A Dependable Monthly Dividend Stock With a 6.6% Yield

This monthly dividend stock offers steady income backed by a diversified business model.

Read more »

money goes up and down in balance
Dividend Stocks

4 TSX Stocks Worth Considering as the Market Shifts Back Toward Value

Value investing is making a comeback in 2026 – and these TSX stocks fit the trend.

Read more »

woman checks off all the boxes
Dividend Stocks

5 Dividend Stocks That Could Deserve a Spot in Nearly Any Portfolio

Are you wondering how to build a portfolio that generates stable, growing passive income? These five top dividend stocks should…

Read more »

workers walk through an office building
Dividend Stocks

3 Undervalued TSX Stocks to Buy Before the Crowd Catches On

These three “undervalued” TSX names all look imperfect today, which is exactly why their valuations may be offering opportunity.

Read more »

bank of canada governor tiff macklem
Dividend Stocks

3 Canadian Stocks I’d Buy Before the Next Bank of Canada Move

With the Bank of Canada on hold, these three TSX names offer earnings power that doesn’t require perfect rate cuts.

Read more »

Investor wonders if it's safe to buy stocks now
Dividend Stocks

This Market Feels Shaky: Here Are 2 Canadian Stocks I’d Still Buy

When markets get shaky, two TSX names, a cash-gushing gold miner and a deeply discounted fund, can help you stay…

Read more »

electrical cord plugs into wall socket for more energy
Dividend Stocks

1 TSX Dividend Stock That’s Down 10% – and Looks Worth Buying While It’s There

Considering its solid operational performance, growth pipeline, reasonable valuation, and healthy dividend yield, Northland Power offers attractive buying opportunities at…

Read more »