I want Bombardier Inc. (TSX:BBD.B) to turn things around. I have been following this company for some time now and every time I think the company is going to get its CSeries plane in the air, something bad happens. There’s a technical problem or delays or something that interferes in the company finally launching the plane that some have considered the make or break product for the company.
There are reports coming out that Swiss International Air Lines, the first company that will acquire the CSeries, is frustrated that things are taking as long as they are. The CSeries was supposed to have been delivered two years ago, and yet we’re still waiting for that first plane to make its maiden voyage with passengers. And for the record, it’s quite possible that commercial flights won’t begin for at least another four months and probably longer into 2016.
To top it all off, the company doesn’t have the strongest balance sheet and has a ridiculous amount of debt. At the end of the second quarter, Bombardier had $3.1 billion in cash. Now, that doesn’t sound so bad, until you realize that during the first half of 2015, it spent $1.5 billion. If the CSeries doesn’t start selling, the company could run out of money, requiring it to raise more funds. This would dilute investors’ shares even more, which is never good. With debt at US$9 billion, the company needs everything to go right or it could be in dire straits.
Investors should wait
I’m not against investors buying Bombardier. I think that if the company succeeds, it could result in huge profits for investors. However, the risks far outweigh the rewards right now. If Bombardier has another delay in delivering the CSeries, I see no reason why many of the customers won’t just back out and start looking to acquire planes from other companies.
Therefore, investors should wait to start acquiring shares of the company until Bombardier has delivered a plane. Once a plane leaves the assembly line and is delivered to a customer, then you can start to acquire shares. But understand that the first few rides on a plane are a little bumpy. Remember when Boeing had battery problems on its 787? That hurt the company in the short term.
The reality is, Bombardier could very well turn around. It could begin selling plenty of CSeries planes and start generating enough cash flow to cover all its costs and then start paying down its debt. That is certainly a possibility.
But I believe too many simultaneous things need to go right before the company is really in a position to shine. If you’re willing to take that risk for the potential reward, buy shares because the price is low. However, if you are more comfortable watching and waiting, you won’t be faulted for that. I lean towards waiting to see what happens.
