With the recent U.S. and not-so-recent Canadian elections behind us, I’ll be taking a look at some of the promises both leaders have made and how these promises may affect Canadian industry.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s recent election to the country’s highest office has many analysts talking oil and softwood lumber: two industries that have historically long been the source of negotiations between Canada and the U.S., the country’s largest trading partner.
The Keystone XL pipeline proposed by TransCanada Corporation (TSX:TRP)(NYSE:TRP) approximately a decade ago has been blocked by the Obama administration via environmental reviews; the final veto came last year, and many analysts deemed this pipeline shelved to the point of extinction.
In Trump’s campaign, he commented on the pipeline: “[I’ll] absolutely approve it, 100%, but I would want a better deal.” This may mean that the proposed deal will be reconsidered and renegotiated, along with NAFTA.
NAFTA negotiations
NAFTA negotiations between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are slated to begin shortly; Canada and Mexico both agreed to step to the table to discuss the trade agreement.
Canada’s interest in renegotiating parts of NAFTA is to see if labeling issues, softwood lumber, and pipeline disputes can be resolved in part or entirely. The softwood lumber dispute is over a decade old, one which has resulted from the U.S. suggesting Canada violated various trade treaties via unfairly subsidizing the cost of the softwood lumber it exports. This will likely be a major negotiation point in the upcoming talks.
Getting Canadian heavy crude oil to Gulf Coast refineries has been a key focus of Albertan oil companies, but this is less so in recent years with commodity prices falling. Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Trudeau have pushed for pipelines recently, and TransCanada Corporation may be on the right side of the recent elections, if NAFTA negotiations can indeed head in a positive direction.
Justin Trudeau
Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau won his job based on a number of promises, many of which have been slow to roll out. One of his more controversial and public promises has been his support for the legalization of marijuana–something which has seen the share prices of many publicly traded marijuana companies soar in recent weeks.
Shares of Canopy Growth Corp. (TSX:CGC), Canada’s largest marijuana company listed on the TSX, have shot up by 90% over the past five trading days due in part to the U.S. election results.
Trudeau’s promise of legalizing recreational marijuana usage will likely not take effect until 2018, and the timeline for any push from the Trump administration to even address marijuana usage is uncertain, but the market for marijuana producers has taken news of a Trump election very positively. Shares of nearly every major publicly traded marijuana producer are up on the news.
