Railroad Stocks Have Pulled Back: Which Should You Consider?

Should you buy Canadian National Railway Company (TSX:CNR)(NYSE:CNI) or its peer on the dip?

| More on:
railroad

Both Canadian National Railway Company (TSX:CNR)(NYSE:CNI) and Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (TSX:CP)(NYSE:CP) have generated tremendous wealth for their long-term shareholders. The stocks have delivered returns far greater than what the general market has delivered in the last decade alone.

Outperforming the market

A $10,000 investment made in Canadian National Railway at the start of 2007 has since transformed into ~$43,700, or an annualized rate of return of ~14.8%.

In the same period, the same investment in Canadian Pacific Railway has transformed into ~$33,900, or an annualized rate of return of ~12.1%. If that amount were invested in the S&P 500 at the time, it would only have transformed into ~$19,600, or an annualized rate of return of ~6.5%.

win

It’s interesting to note that in a little more than 10 years, the seemingly small 2.7% additional rate of return from Canadian National Railway over Canadian Pacific Railway amounted to $9,800 of excess gains.

In the last five years, the two companies continued to outperform the market, but Canadian Pacific Railway took the lead this time. In this period, Canadian Pacific Railway’s earnings per share (EPS) tripled, while Canadian National Railway’s EPS increased by only 90%.

The business performance of the railroads relies on the underlying economies to do well. However, the valuations at which investors buy and the future growth rates of the companies are big factors that contribute to future returns as well.

Valuation and growth

Let’s see which may be a better investment today.

At ~$101 per share, Canadian National Railway trades at a multiple of ~20.4, while The Street consensus estimates it will grow its EPS by 8.7-10.1% per year for the next three to five years. So, at best, the stock is fairly valued.

At ~$194 per share, Canadian Pacific Railway trades at a multiple of ~17.5, while The Street consensus estimates it will grow its EPS by 11.3-12.6% per year for the next three to five years. So, the stock is undervalued.

Investor takeaway

Although Canadian Pacific Railway is a better-valued investment than Canadian National Railway today, some investors like the latter company for its consistent dividend growth.

Canadian National Railway has increased its dividend for 21 consecutive years. The company’s 10-year dividend-growth rate is 16.5%. Its quarterly dividend per share is 10% higher than it was a year ago. For the next few years, investors can expect healthy dividend growth of roughly 8-10% per year.

In conclusion, total returns investors should consider Canadian Pacific Railway over Canadian National Railway today. If you like Canadian National Railway’s consistent dividend growth, consider the stock at a lower valuation — perhaps below $90 at a multiple of ~18.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Kay Ng has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. David Gardner owns shares of Canadian National Railway. The Motley Fool owns shares of Canadian National Railway. Canadian National Railway is a recommendation of Stock Advisor Canada.

More on Dividend Stocks

analyze data
Dividend Stocks

Here’s Why the Average TFSA for Canadians Aged 41 Isn’t Enough

The average TFSA simply isn't enough for most Canadians in their early 40s. Here's how to catch up.

Read more »

cloud computing
Dividend Stocks

Insurance Showdown: Better Buy, Great-West Life or Manulife Stock?

GWO stock and MFC stock are two of the top names in insurance, but which holds the better outlook?

Read more »

concept of real estate evaluation
Dividend Stocks

How to Earn a TFSA Paycheque Every Month and Pay No Taxes on It

Canadian REITs can turn your TFSA into a monthly paycheque machine for life. Here's how Morguard North American Residential REIT…

Read more »

A plant grows from coins.
Dividend Stocks

The Smartest Dividend-Growth Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

New dividend-growth investors should consider CN Rail (TSX:CNR) stock and another top play if they're looking to build wealth over…

Read more »

Dividend Stocks

The 3 Top Canadian Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

If you want consistent income, look to consistent dividend payers. These three stocks are some of the best in the…

Read more »

A worker gives a business presentation.
Dividend Stocks

Want a 6% Average Yield? 3 TSX Stocks to Buy Today

These stocks pay good dividends that should continue to grow.

Read more »

chart reflected in eyeglass lenses
Dividend Stocks

Is Alimentation Couche-Tard Stock a Buy for its 0.9% Dividend Yield?

Couche-Tard stock's small yield is not enticing, but its growth potential could be a wealth creator.

Read more »

Hourglass and stock price chart
Dividend Stocks

5.2% Dividend Yield! I’m Buying This TSX Stock and Holding for Decades!

With its 5.2% dividend yield, Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) is a stock I'm eagerly buying.

Read more »