Is This Your Last Chance to Buy Cameco Corp. Under $12?

With one analyst projecting Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ) stock will hit $21, is now the time to buy?

| More on:

After a dismal run through most part of 2017, shares of uranium giant Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO)(NYSE:CCJ) bounced off lows in November and rallied close to $13.5 before losing some ground again. Yet, the stock is still up 5% since November, indicating that the worst might be over — a sentiment that’s echoing through several analyst firms.

Just days ago, TD Securities raised its rating on Cameco stock to buy from hold and upped its price target to $21 from $14.5, backed by anticipation of a recovery in uranium prices. Could that mean this is your only chance to buy Cameco while it’s still trading cheap under $12?

Why Cameco shares surged after November

Low uranium prices proved to be the biggest hurdle for uranium producers in 2017. Cameco struggled to grow its bottom line — its revenue still grew thanks to deliveries under long-term contracts — when Japan-based Tokyo Electric Power dealt a huge blow to the company by abruptly terminating a uranium supply contract that was to run from 2017 to 2028.

With a major contract now gone and other contracts nearing expiry, Cameco had to pull up its socks and decide its course of action to survive. The company did just that in November, when it temporarily suspended operations at its largest mine, McArthur River/Key Lake in Saskatchewan, and announced a massive 80% dividend cut to prevent further cash burn.

Despite the dividend shock, investors cheered Cameco’s move, hoping that a production cut would ease the supply glut and provide tumbling uranium prices a floor. Soon after, in December, Kazakhstan — the world’s largest uranium supplier — announced its intentions to cut production by 20% over the next three years. It was just what the uranium industry wanted to hear.

What’s next?

TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes believes that supply cuts from the industry’s top suppliers could mean the bottoming of spot uranium prices. Spot uranium prices are, in fact, already started showing some signs of life, gaining nearly 10% between October and December.

More importantly, Barnes believes that the production cuts could encourage nuclear utilities to sign contracts. Investors in uranium may know that the bulk of the uranium produced is supplied to utilities under long-term contracts that can range from anything between three years to 15 years. The contract market has been dry so far, as most utilities have waited for lower uranium prices. Once prices recover, utilities should be back in the game.

Should you buy Cameco now?

Much like TD Securities, I believe the worst is over for the uranium markets. However, the recovery could be painfully slow, and investors in Cameco shouldn’t expect any substantial improvement to its top or bottom lines in the near future.

Cameco is, however, striving hard to cut costs, preserve cash, and maintain its dividend at a sustainable level. If things worsen, Cameco will have enough cash flow to sail through. If things improve, Cameco’s cost control should provide further impetus to growth. Long-term investors can enter Cameco now and enjoy its 3.5% dividend yield while awaiting a recovery. But if you want more from a stock than just bank on its yield, I’d advise you look at other stocks with better visibility into the future instead.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

More on Metals and Mining Stocks

construction workers talk on the job site
Metals and Mining Stocks

2 No-Brainer Mining Stocks to Buy With $200 Right Now

You can buy these top Canadian mining stocks with just a $200 investment right now to start your long-term wealth…

Read more »

Concept of multiple streams of income
Stocks for Beginners

Lock Up This 9.2% Dividend Yield From a Top Royalty Stock

Royalty stocks have a strong advantage when it comes to creating passive income for investors. But this one has the…

Read more »

Safety helmets and gloves hang from a rack on a mining site.
Metals and Mining Stocks

Is First Quantum Minerals Stock a Good Buy Right Now?

First Quantum is a TSX stock that trades 61% below all-time highs. However, the mining stock still trades at a…

Read more »

nugget gold
Metals and Mining Stocks

The Best Gold Stock to Invest $1,000 in Right Now

Here are two of the best Canadian gold stocks that can yield some eye-popping returns in the long run.

Read more »

nugget gold
Stocks for Beginners

The Ultimate Mining Stock to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

This mining stock just saw a drop, but don't let that keep you from diving in. This miner is due…

Read more »

A plant grows from coins.
Metals and Mining Stocks

Canadian Mining Stocks: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Explore 2025’s top Canadian mining stocks – gold, uranium, and base metals offer big potential in a dynamic, commodity-driven market.

Read more »

farmer holds box of leafy greens
Metals and Mining Stocks

3 Reasons to Buy Nutrien Stock Like There’s No Tomorrow

Nutrien stock has lost 34% of its value just this year alone and looks incredibly cheap today. Yet, secular trends…

Read more »

Canada national flag waving in wind on clear day
Tech Stocks

Trump Trade: Canadian Stocks to Watch

With Trump returning to the presidency, there are some sectors that could boom in Canada, and others to watch. But…

Read more »