This Canadian Dividend Aristocrat Offers 42% Upside!

Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX:ITP) is trading near 52-week lows and is a good rebound candidate for the second half of the year.

| More on:

For a value investor, it’s exciting to discover a company that is unloved by the market. Sometimes there are valid reasons for a stock’s decline. Stay away from these.

In other cases, the market has overreacted to earnings and one-time events. Perhaps there’s no clear reason for the decline. Regardless, these are the companies value investors seek out.

One easy way to identify which companies that are unloved by the market is to seek out those that are trading near 52-week lows. One such company is Intertape Polymer Group Inc. (TSX:ITP).

Year-to-date, the company has lost almost 17% of its value. Intertape’s current market price is more than 30% below its 52-week high of $25.41 reached in July of last year. It has been on a steady decline ever since.

Is this Canadian Dividend Aristocrat, who has raised dividends for six consecutive years, a value trap? Let’s take a look.

Mixed earnings

Intertape is the furthest thing from consistent. The company has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed on the top line in each case. I believe this is the main reason for the company’s recent struggles.

The company’s most recent earnings miss of 25% was one of the more pronounced. Since posting first-quarter results, Intertape stock has dropped another 5%.

Declining financials

Let’s dig deeper into those earnings.

At first glance, the company’s 14% increase in first quarter revenues is a good sign. However, it was largely a result of the additional sales from a recent acquisition. Organic volumes were actually negative.

In the first quarter, gross margins dropped by 100 base percentage point (BPS) year-over-year (YOY) and 150 BPS over the fourth quarter of 2017 — not great.

Likewise, cash flows and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization also took a turn for the worse.

Outlook

According to its first-quarter presentation, Intertape expects revenues and EBITDA to increase in the second quarter. Long-term, the company expects to achieve a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% through 2022.

What about earnings? Analysts’ expect the company to post 14% earnings growth in 2019.

Management also tried to ease concerns over a declining gross margin. On its first-quarter earnings call, President and Chief Executive Officer Gregory Yull commented that the “gross margin compression…is expected to be temporary”.

Bargain prices

Trading at 11 times earnings, Intertape looks cheap. In comparison, the company has historically traded at a multiple of 13 times earnings. Should the company trade in line with historical averages, the stock would be looking at 20% growth.

Analysts’ also have high expectations for the company. Five of the seven analysts covering the company rate it a buy. Likewise, the average street price target is $25.17, which implies 42% upside!

The company has struggled to execute on its strategy, but it continues to grow revenues at an impressive pace. Trading at 52-week lows, I believe that the market is overly bearish and discounting its potential growth.

Intertape is a good rebound candidate for the second half of the year.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Mat Litalien has no position in any of the companies listed.   

More on Dividend Stocks

Train cars pass over trestle bridge in the mountains
Dividend Stocks

Is CNR Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

Can CNR stock continue its long-term outperformance into 2025 and beyond? Let's explore whether now is a good time to…

Read more »

coins jump into piggy bank
Dividend Stocks

The Smartest Dividend Stocks to Buy With $500 Right Now

These top dividend stocks both offer attractive yields and trade off their highs, making them two of the best to…

Read more »

Middle aged man drinks coffee
Dividend Stocks

Here’s the Average TFSA Balance at Age 35 in Canada

At age 35, it might not seem like you need to be thinking about your future cash flow. But ideally,…

Read more »

ETF stands for Exchange Traded Fund
Dividend Stocks

How to Invest Your $7,000 TFSA Contribution in 2024

Here's how I would prioritize a $7,000 TFSA contribution for growth and income.

Read more »

a man relaxes with his feet on a pile of books
Dividend Stocks

CPP Pensioners: Watch for These Important Updates

The CPP is an excellent tool for retirees, but be sure to stay on top of important updates like these.

Read more »

Technology
Dividend Stocks

TFSA Investors: 3 Dividend Stocks I’d Buy and Hold Forever

These TSX dividend stocks are likely to help TFSA investors earn steady and growing passive income for decades.

Read more »

four people hold happy emoji masks
Dividend Stocks

Love Dividend Growth? Check Out These 2 Income-Boosting Stocks

National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) and another Canadian dividend-growth stock are looking like a bargain going into December 2024.

Read more »

An investor uses a tablet
Dividend Stocks

A Dividend Giant I’d Buy Over Enbridge Stock Right Now

Enbridge stock may seem like the best of the best in terms of dividends, but honestly this one is far…

Read more »