Aphria Inc. (TSX:APH) Stock Is up 30% Over the Past Month: Is it Still a Buy in September?

Aphria Inc. (TSX:APH) stock has surged in late August but could still have room to run ahead of recreational legalization.

Aphria (TSX:APH) stock rose 12.03% on August 29. Shares have surged 30% over the past month but are still down over 20% in 2018 so far.

Earlier this month, when Aphria stock fell below $9, I’d discussed whether the stock could climb back over the $20 mark with recreational legalization looming. At the time, I was skeptical that Aphria could put together a run at its previous all-time highs but still recommended it as an attractive speculative buy. Of course, this was before the $5 billion investment from Constellation Brands that launched a new rally for cannabis stocks. The stock sits at $16.30 as of this writing.

Back in July, I’d also discussed why Aphria was an enticing option for those seeking big potential growth and value. Should investors still be eager to jump into Aphria stock as we look ahead to September? Let’s take a quick look at what has been a very busy August.

Aphria kicked off August with the release of its fiscal 2018 fourth-quarter and full-year results. Revenue doubled from $5.7 million in Q4 2017 to $12 million in the last quarter of fiscal 2018. For the full year, revenue rose from $20.4 million to $36.9 million. Aphria has long boasted low production costs and reported that its cash costs to produce dried cannabis per gram fell $0.01 quarter over quarter to $0.95. Its annual production capacity was reported at 255,000 with the first sale expected in January 2019.

Like other producers, Aphria also made a number of positive steps forward in securing distribution and supply agreements. On August 8, the company announced that it signed a Manufacturer’s Representative agreement with Vancouver-based licensed producer We Grow Ltd. This allowed Aphria to become We Grow’s exclusive sales representative across Canada.

On August 21, Aphria announced that it had entered a supply agreement with the Ontario Cannabis Store (OSC). Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis, and a number of other licensed producers were also granted supply agreements. Recreational cannabis will be legalized on October 17, but Ontario will not move forward on wholesale retail until April 2019. This means that all legal recreational sales will be done through the OSC online store.

Finally, on August 27, Aphria announced that it had entered a supply agreement with the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation. It will provide cannabis and cannabis derivative products in Nova Scotia’s market starting on October 17. This represented the eighth such supply agreement for Aphria after securing deals with Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Yukon.

Is Aphria a buy today?

Even after its recent surge, it is hard not to like Aphria at its current price. Shares have only just recovered to levels before a late January and early February dip that sunk cannabis stocks. Aphria has jumped ahead of its peers with its low-cost production and has secured promising supply agreements. The company is one of the few sure bets in this young industry ahead of the October 17th roll-out date.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Ambrose O'Callaghan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

More on Investing

Paper Canadian currency of various denominations
Dividend Stocks

2 Top Canadian Dividend Stocks to Buy on a Pullback

These stocks deserve to be on your radar today.

Read more »

ways to boost income
Dividend Stocks

This 10.18% Dividend Stock Is My Pick for Immediate Income

This dividend stock offers an impressive dividend yield, but is that enough for investors to consider long term?

Read more »

a sign flashes global stock data
Investing

Should You Buy Dentalcorp Holding While it’s Below $10?

Investors who prefer to stick to blue-chip stocks may have reservations about trading with a single-digit price tag, but these…

Read more »

Pile of Canadian dollar bills in various denominations
Investing

Here’s Where I’m Investing My Next $2,500 on the TSX

Here's why Restaurant Brands (TSX:QSR) remains one of my top picks in the market right now.

Read more »

Confused person shrugging
Dividend Stocks

Telus: Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

Telus is down 20% in the past year. Is the stock now undervalued?

Read more »

Dividend Stocks

The CRA Is Watching: The Least-Known TFSA Red Flags

If you want to keep your TFSA growing, don't get the CRA on your back. Avoid these pitfalls, and invest…

Read more »

Train cars pass over trestle bridge in the mountains
Stock Market

Where Will Canadian Pacific Kansas City Stock Be in 3 Years?

Down 13% from all-time highs, Canadian Pacific Kansas City trades at reasonable valuation and should beat the TSX index in…

Read more »

An investor uses a tablet
Dividend Stocks

BCE Stock: A Lukewarm Outlook for 2025

BCE Inc (TSX:BCE) stock has a tepid outlook for 2025.

Read more »