Trillions: The Insane Market Potential of This Tech Stock

Lightspeed POS  (TSX:LSPD) is a rapidly growing business in a massive global market. However, the growth is already priced in.

| More on:

Cash is no longer king. In fact, it’s a dying form of payment across the world. I grew up in India and saw cash being rapidly replaced by mobile payments and plastic cards over the past decade.

A similar story is unfolding in other emerging markets. Meanwhile, cashless payments are already the default in most developed economies like Canada. 

This creates an opportunity for technical innovations. Better payment technologies, quicker ways to process transactions, lower fees driven by automation, and comprehensive reports for business owners  to improve operational efficiency are all within the realm of possibility now. 

At the forefront of this paradigm shift are companies like Lightspeed POS  (TSX:LSPD), which provide point-of-sale (POS) terminals and software payment solutions to small and medium-sized businesses.

In other words, the company helps your local mom-and-pop barber shop accept your credit card through and app on their iPad. 

According to Lightspeed’s website, there are an estimated 226 million small and medium size businesses (SMBs) around the world, which have collectively generated $59 trillion in sales over the course of 2018. Lightspeed targets 47 million restaurants and retailers that are included in that pool. 

It’s no surprise that small scale businesses generate trillions of dollars. After all, there are far more SMBs in the world than there are major corporations. However, processing these trillions of dollars in payments isn’t as lucrative as it might seem.

Despite the growth in online payments and paperless transactions, the market for POS terminals is only expected to be worth $108 billion by 2027.  

This market is highly fragmented and intensely competitive. Some of the largest players include VeriFone Systems and Oracle. Lightspeed’s software and POS offerings have direct competitors that are also much larger. Square is Lightspeed’s most comparable peer. 

Square, much like Lightspeed, currently operates on negative net margins. Eventually, I believe both companies will undoubtedly become profitable, but not by much.

Transaction fees are always going to be low enough to accommodate SMBs and that will keep net margins in the low-single digits by my estimate. 

So even if Lightspeed can multiply its currently annual revenue by 20 times, leading to sales of $1.5 billion, I wouldn’t expect the annual profits to exceed $150 million. That means its current market value of $2.2 billion is somewhat overdone. 

Bear in mind that Lightspeed has been expanding earnings by 36% annually over the past few years. At that pace, investors might have to wait roughly 10 years before sales reach that lofty $1.5 billion mark.

Bottom line

Lightspeed is a rapidly growing business in a massive global market. However, the intense competition in this industry will always keep net margins low.

So, even if the company succeeds in sustaining its current growth rate for the next decade, the best-case scenario is already priced into the stock.

I would look for a correction in the stock price to enter. 

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Vishesh Raisinghani has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Tom Gardner owns shares of Square. The Motley Fool owns shares of Lightspeed POS Inc and Square.

More on Tech Stocks

Happy shoppers look at a cellphone.
Tech Stocks

So You Own Shopify Stock: Is it Still a Good Investment?

Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stock has had a run, but there's still room to the upside.

Read more »

A person uses and AI chat bot
Tech Stocks

AI Where No One’s Looking: Seize Growth in These Canadian Stocks Before the Market Catches Up

Beyond flashy headlines about generative AI, these two Canadian AI stocks could deliver strong returns for investors who are willing…

Read more »

Data center servers IT workers
Tech Stocks

Better Buy: Shopify Stock or Constellation Software?

Let's dive into whether Shopify (TSX:SHOP) or Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) are the better options for growth investors in this current…

Read more »

nvidia headquarters with nvidia sign in front
Tech Stocks

Nvidia Just Delivered a Beat-and-Raise Quarter. There’s 1 Red Flag Investors Shouldn’t Ignore.

The chipmaker continued to benefit from robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI). But can it last?

Read more »

GettyImages-1473086836
Tech Stocks

Why Super Micro Computer Stock Is Soaring Today

The volatile stock is getting a boost from Nvidia.

Read more »

Snowflake logo in snowflake office on wall_snowflake-1
Tech Stocks

Here’s Why Snowflake Stock Skyrocketed Today

Shares of the data company are up 32% for the day.

Read more »

man touching magnifying glass button on floating search bar internet google search engine
Tech Stocks

Why Alphabet Stock Was Sliding Today

The parent company of Google is facing heat from U.S. regulators.

Read more »

chart reflected in eyeglass lenses
Tech Stocks

Top Canadian AI Stocks to Watch in 2025

Celestica (TSX:CLS) stock and another Canadian AI stock are worth watching closely this holiday season.

Read more »