ALERT: A Recession Is Coming and This Stock Will Outperform

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Investment Ltd. (TSX: FAP) is a great way for investor to get portfolio exposure to the fixed income market in Asia Pacific. The stock is trading at a sizeable discount to net asset value. Could this be an opportunity of a lifetime?

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Investment Company (TSX:FAP) is a close ended fixed income fund launched by Aberdeen Standard Investments Ltd. It invests in fixed income markets of the Asia-Pacific region.

The fund primarily invests in long-term debt securities and benchmarks the performance of the portfolio against a composite index composed of 25% UBS Composite Index, 20% JP Morgan Asian Credit Index, 35% iBoxx Indices, and 20% JPMorgan Government Emerging Markets Indices. The company was formed in 1986 and is domiciled in the United States.

The fund has a market capitalization of 183 million, trades at a 22% discount to net asset value and provides unique fixed income portfolio exposure to the Asia-Pacific region. The investment objective of the company is to obtain current income and earn capital appreciation from investment in long-term debt securities. The company invests up to 80% of total equity in Asia-Pacific debt securities.

By virtue of a fixed-income investment strategy, many of the company’s net assets are exposed to interest rate risk. Further, given that a substantial proportion of its assets are invested in securities denominated in foreign currencies, changes in the value of the Canadian dollar against these foreign currencies can have a huge impact on performance over time.

Investments in assets denominated in Australian and United States dollars represented the largest currency holdings in the company’s assets.

Factors that are thought to influence the company’s share price include a fund’s relative performance, the liquidity of a fund’s shares, dividend yield, the use of a managed distribution policy, confidence in a fund’s manager, investors’ perceptions and expectations regarding the outlook of the countries/industries/markets where a fund invests. The company’s ordinary shares traded in 2019 within a range of a discount of 8.7% to 25.0%.

In addition, it faces the risk of illiquidity in the company’s investments in lower-rated debt securities and local currency Asia-Pacific debt securities. The ability to hedge risk and transact at low costs in these markets is less than the more developed markets and is subject to sudden shifts in market liquidity.

Management fees are reasonable. A fee agreement provides for a monthly fee at the annual rate of 0.65% of the company’s average weekly assets up to and including $250 million at the annual rate of 0.55% of the company’s average weekly assets in excess of $250 million and including $450 million, and at the annual rate of 0.50% of the company’s average weekly assets in excess of C$450 million, payable monthly.

The company returned 3.67% on a net equity value basis for Q3 2019, thereby underperforming the 5.02% return of the blended benchmark. Regarding absolute performance, the fund’s Asian local-currency overweight exposure to Philippine, Indian, Indonesian and Sri-Lankan bonds delivered excellent performance; however, an underweight allocation to Indonesia weighed on relative performance.

The company’s emerging market debt exposure also contributed to absolute performance as risk assets recovered. Exposure to Australian bonds negatively impacted the company’s absolute performance, with currency depreciation negating the performance from bonds.

Based on the 22% discount to net asset value and unique portfolio exposure to the fixed income market in the Asia Pacific, this stock looks like a great buy.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Nikhil Kumar has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

More on Investing

ways to boost income
Investing

2 Financial Stocks That Canadian Investors Should Grab in November

Great-West Lifeco (TSX:GWO) and another financial stock have huge yields and upside potential in 2025.

Read more »

Piggy bank with word TFSA for tax-free savings accounts.
Investing

Here’s the Average TFSA Balance at Age 64 in Canada

This highly diversified Vanguard retirement income ETF is perfect for passive income.

Read more »

money goes up and down in balance
Bank Stocks

Is Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock a Good Buy?

TD stock is underperforming its peers in 2024. Will 2025 be different?

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Tuesday, November 26

U.S. consumer confidence and new home sales data will remain on TSX investors’ radar today.

Read more »

Dividend Stocks

Top Canadian Stocks to Buy Right Now With $1,000

Investing in stocks is not about timing but consistency. If you have $1,000 to invest, these stocks offer an attractive…

Read more »

TFSA (Tax-Free Savings Account) on wooden blocks and Canadian one hundred dollar bills.
Investing

1 Way to Use a TFSA to Earn $250 Monthly Income

Here's one way long-term investors can utilize a Tax-Free Savings Account to generate $250 per month in passive income in…

Read more »

cloud computing
Dividend Stocks

Is Manulife Stock a Buy for its 3.5% Dividend Yield?

Manulife stock has been a long-time dividend winner, but the average has come down over the last few years. So…

Read more »

Person holds banknotes of Canadian dollars
Dividend Stocks

This 7.5% Dividend Stock Pays Cash Every Single Month

Monthly dividend income can be a saviour, but especially when it provides passive income like this!

Read more »