Suncor Stock: How High Could it Go?

Suncor stock is up more than 50% in the past six months, but more big gains could be on the way. Here’s why.

| More on:

Suncor (TSX:SU)(NYSE:SU) is up more than 50% in the past six months. Investors who’ve missed the rally want to know if Suncor stock is still undervalued.

Oil price outlook

WTI oil trades above US$66 per barrel at the time of writing compared to US$36 last fall. The size and resilience of the surge in oil prices caught many analysts by surprise. Coming into 2021, the general consensus was for WTI oil to average about US$50 per barrel for the year.

The initial jump came on vaccine hopes. Oil received an additional boost when OPEC+ decided to maintain supply cuts through the first part of the year. Saudi Arabia then cut output by an additional one million barrels per day, providing an extra tailwind.

On the demand side, fuel use is bouncing back faster than anticipated. Airlines are still operating at severely reduced capacity, but people are driving their cars more, as economies begin to open, and business slowly returns to more normal operations.

In its May 2021 market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the oil glut build-up last year has effectively evaporated. Industry oil stocks are now close to their five-year average.

The new COVID-19 wave hitting India and some other countries could slow down the rebound, but the market looks set to accelerate demand through the end of the year.

OPEC intends to boost supply by two million barrels per day through July. This includes the gradual reduction of Saudi Arabia’s extra cuts earlier this year. The IEA says additional supply will come from Canada and the North Sea, bumping the increase to 3.8 million barrels per day above the April 2021 level.

Analysts have steadily raised price targets amid the strong recovery. Pundits see WTI oil hitting US$75 per barrel at some point this year. The most bullish predictions suggest a spike to US$100 could occur in the next few years due to the massive investment cuts the industry made in 2020.

Suncor’s earnings

Suncor reported solid Q1 2021 results, supported by the sharp increase in the price of oil. Operating earnings for the quarter came in at $746 million compared to a loss of $421 million in the same period last year.

The upstream production businesses should continue to deliver strong results, even if oil remains at its current level. Suncor made good progress in reducing costs to boost margins in the past year. Oil sands cash operating costs dropped by 20% compared to Q1 2020.

Should you buy Suncor stock now?

The refining and retail business units should see a strong second half of 2021 driven by rising fuel demand, as airlines return to the skies and commuters start heading back to the office. Longer term, Suncor plans to move into the renewables sector. The company just announced a partnership to build a world-class hydrogen facility that could reduce Alberta’s CO2 emissions by two-million tonnes per year.

Suncor trades for close to $28 per share compared to $40 per share before the pandemic when WTI oil traded near US$60 per barrel. Assuming demand for gasoline and jet fuel will eventually return to pre-COVID levels in the next couple of years, Suncor stock appears cheap today.

Volatility should be expected, but investors with a bullish view on oil might want to add Suncor to their portfolios at this level. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Suncor stock hit $40 by this time next year. If WTI oil moves above US$75 and stays there, the share price could even take a run at $50.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Andrew Walker owns shares of Suncor.

More on Energy Stocks

golden sunset in crude oil refinery with pipeline system
Energy Stocks

1 Canadian Energy Stock to Buy Confidently and 1 to Avoid for Now 

The Canadian energy sector is witnessing strong momentum amid geopolitical tensions. Here is an energy stock to buy and one…

Read more »

how to save money
Energy Stocks

3 No Brainer Oil Stocks to Buy With $1,000 Right Now

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) stock is looking good in November 2024.

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Energy Stocks

Is Enbridge Stock a Buy for its Dividend Yield?

Enbridge is up 24% in 2024. Are more gains on the way?

Read more »

Canadian energy stocks are rising with oil prices
Energy Stocks

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Enbridge vs TC Energy?

Both Enbridge stock and TD Bank offer strong dividends as well as future growth. But what about ongoing issues?

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Energy Stocks

Top Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy Now in Canada

Oil and gas stocks are in the limelight, making new highs. You could consider buying these stocks to take advantage…

Read more »

oil pump jack under night sky
Energy Stocks

Oil Price Outlook for 2025, Plus Smart Energy Stocks

If you are looking to buy some energy stocks now or next year, it's essential to consider the oil price…

Read more »

oil and gas pipeline
Energy Stocks

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: TC Energy vs Enbridge?

These TSX energy infrastructure giants are on a roll.

Read more »

man touches brain to show a good idea
Energy Stocks

1 No-Brainer Energy Stock to Buy With $500 Right Now

Should you buy a cyclical energy stock at its decade-high? Probably not. But read this before you make a decision.

Read more »