Could Elliott’s Attack Really Create Value for Suncor Energy Investors?

While TSX energy stocks have more than doubled since last year, Suncor Energy stock has remarkably underperformed.

| More on:

While Canadian energy bigwigs are making respective record highs this year, the country’s biggest oil sands player, Suncor Energy (TSX:SU)(NYSE:SU), is nowhere close. This has led activist investor Elliott Management to target Suncor. Since last year, TSX energy stocks have more than doubled, and SU stock has remarkably underperformed.

Suncor’s underperformance invites top activist investor

US$51.5 billion hedge fund Elliott Management disclosed its 3.4% economic interest in Suncor Energy on April 28. The news pushed SU stock 12% higher for the day — an impressive move for an otherwise laggard.

Activist investors find target companies with solid growth potential but are plagued by operational or management-related issues. They buy a small but influential stake in the company and propose strategic changes to the existing board. If the board fails to implement those changes, activist investors could escalate into proxy fights to take control of the company’s board.

Elliott Management has targeted AT&T, Twitter, and NRG Energy in the past. As a result, the share prices of the activist-invested companies have shown superior performance in the short to medium term. But their performance in the long term has been mixed.

In the recent case, Elliott has criticized Suncor for its “slow-moving, overly bureaucratic corporate culture.” As a result, it has proposed appointing five new independent directors to the board and also a sale of Petro-Canada’s 1,800 retail outlets.

Elliott expects the proposed changes to send SU’s share price to $60 — a handsome 50% upside from Wednesday’s close.

Elliott’s proposed strategic changes

How Suncor Energy management responds to these proposed changes remains to be seen. The Canadian energy sector looks extremely well placed in the current scenario with steadily increasing crude oil demand and squeezed supply. Notably, Suncor’s underperformance is concerning amid the rallying oil and gas prices.

As proposed by Elliott, Suncor’s exit from its retail business could unlock significant value for shareholders. A maximum value could be garnered by selling it to a strategic acquirer, mainly amid the re-openings gaining pace. In addition, the sale proceeds could be used to repay debt or to increase shareholder dividends.

Suncor trimmed its dividend by 55% in 2020 amid the pandemic. As oil and gas prices eventually recovered, it normalized dividends in Q4 last year. So, all in all, Suncor has not increased dividends from its pre-pandemic levels, when peers have shown handsome dividend growth. Apart from the financials, Suncor has struggled on the operational front with multiple employee fatalities, lower production, and high costs.

Rallying energy prices could aid Elliott and Suncor

Suncor is planning to release its Q1 2022 earnings on May 3. Superior free cash flow growth and balance sheet improvements have been the trend so far in the sector. Apart from the quarterly performance, it remains to be seen whether Elliott’s Midas touch will work for Suncor shareholders.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

The Motley Fool recommends Twitter. Fool contributor Vineet Kulkarni has no position in any of the stocks mentioned

More on Energy Stocks

oil and gas pipeline
Energy Stocks

Is TC Energy Stock a Good Buy?

TC Energy stock has a lot going for it, but there are also a few red flags to consider before…

Read more »

Canadian energy stocks are rising with oil prices
Energy Stocks

Is Canadian Natural Resources Stock a Good Buy?

CNRL is an energy giant with a market capitalization near $100 billion.

Read more »

A worker overlooks an oil refinery plant.
Energy Stocks

Is Baytex Energy Stock a Good Buy?

Baytex Energy is a TSX stock that has massively underperformed the broader markets in the past decade, but it trades…

Read more »

Pumpjack in Alberta Canada
Energy Stocks

Is Suncor a Buy for its 4.2% Dividend?

Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) has a 4.2% yield. Is it a buy?

Read more »

engineer at wind farm
Energy Stocks

Energy Stocks to Buy Now: Top Picks for Canadian Investors

These companies have a solid business model and growing cash flows to support higher dividend payments and share prices.

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Energy Stocks

Is Enbridge Stock a Good Buy?

Enbridge provides a 6.5% dividend yield right now.

Read more »

Oil industry worker works in oilfield
Energy Stocks

Is Suncor Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

Suncor stock looks undervalued as the company continues to increases cash flows, earnings, and shareholder returns.

Read more »

construction workers talk on the job site
Energy Stocks

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Baytex vs Suncor?

Suncor and Baytex stocks both look like solid companies offering growth and dividends. But which is the better buy?

Read more »