Oil Drops Below $100: Should You Buy?

Oil stocks like Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) could rebound if the dip below $100 is temporary.

| More on:
oil and natural gas

Image source: Getty Images

The price of crude oil is dropping today. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped below $100 and is currently trading at $99.4. The price surged to $123 when Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. 

The collapse in energy prices has come as a surprise for many. It has far-reaching implications for the global economy and the rest of the stock market. Here’s a closer look at what this means and whether investors should buy the dip. 

Why is the oil price falling?

The supply of energy remains deeply constrained. Oil producers across the world have struggled to ramp up production this year. However, demand has fallen off a cliff. 

Rising interest rates, layoffs and the cost of living have compelled consumers to cut back on spending. There are concerns that the world faces a recession. In fact, some estimates suggest we’re already in a recession now. 

Lower demand is bad for oil prices. Crude fell in 2008 after the Global Financial Crisis. We could be repeating history now. 

What comes next?

It’s incredibly difficult to predict what comes next. Expert opinion is split. Some say the correction is temporary and the supply of oil is still far below demand. Others say demand destruction is likely to be so severe that oil prices remain suppressed for a while. 

The price hinges on the severity of the upcoming recession. If the downturn is as bad as 2008, oil could go lower. If the recession is milder, crude prices may stabilize here. Investors need to make a decision between one of these forecasts. 

Bet on oil stocks

If you believe the supply-demand imbalance will be persistent for several years, this dip could be an opportunity. Adding robust oil stocks, like Suncor Energy (TSX:SU)(NYSE:SU), could be perfect contrarian plays. 

Over the past month, Suncor has lost 20% of its value and is now firmly in bear market territory. The stock trades at just 10 times earnings per share. If oil prices remain elevated or surge higher, this stock could unlock tremendous value for patient shareholders. 

Warren Buffett is certainly betting on a persistent oil boom. In recent months, he has bought a significant stake in Occidental Petroleum. However, Buffett also made the mistake of betting on oil companies in the 2008 financial crisis and lost money on this bet, so tread carefully. 

Bet on growth stocks

It seems counter-intuitive, but cheap oil is good for growth stocks. If the price of fuel remains low, inflation will subside. That means central banks can slow down their interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening cycles. 

Beaten-down growth stocks, like Constellation Software could rebound sharply. Investors who believe a recession is certain should bet on long-term growth stocks at these levels. 

Bottom line

Oil prices are falling because demand is quickly evaporating. Investors can buy the dip on oil stocks if they think this is temporary. But if the correction is persistent, tech and growth stocks would be a better bet. Good luck.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Vishesh Raisinghani has positions in Constellation Software. The Motley Fool recommends Constellation Software.

More on Energy Stocks

oil and gas pipeline
Energy Stocks

Is TC Energy Stock a Good Buy?

TC Energy stock has a lot going for it, but there are also a few red flags to consider before…

Read more »

Canadian energy stocks are rising with oil prices
Energy Stocks

Is Canadian Natural Resources Stock a Good Buy?

CNRL is an energy giant with a market capitalization near $100 billion.

Read more »

A worker overlooks an oil refinery plant.
Energy Stocks

Is Baytex Energy Stock a Good Buy?

Baytex Energy is a TSX stock that has massively underperformed the broader markets in the past decade, but it trades…

Read more »

Pumpjack in Alberta Canada
Energy Stocks

Is Suncor a Buy for its 4.2% Dividend?

Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) has a 4.2% yield. Is it a buy?

Read more »

engineer at wind farm
Energy Stocks

Energy Stocks to Buy Now: Top Picks for Canadian Investors

These companies have a solid business model and growing cash flows to support higher dividend payments and share prices.

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Energy Stocks

Is Enbridge Stock a Good Buy?

Enbridge provides a 6.5% dividend yield right now.

Read more »

Oil industry worker works in oilfield
Energy Stocks

Is Suncor Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

Suncor stock looks undervalued as the company continues to increases cash flows, earnings, and shareholder returns.

Read more »

construction workers talk on the job site
Energy Stocks

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Baytex vs Suncor?

Suncor and Baytex stocks both look like solid companies offering growth and dividends. But which is the better buy?

Read more »