5 Things to Know About ARC Resources Stock in January 2023

Should you buy ARX stock?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s premium investing services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Natural gas prices have come down significantly in the last few weeks, mainly due to warmer weather. As a result, gas-led TSX energy stocks have notably tumbled of late. One of them is ARC Resources (TSX:ARX), Canada’s third-largest natural gas producer. After a massive outperformance last year, ARX stock has dropped 20% since December 2022. Let’s see if the recent weakness poses any buying opportunities for new investors.

Created with Highcharts 11.4.3Arc Resources PriceZoom1M3M6MYTD1Y5Y10YALLwww.fool.ca

Production mix

ARX intends to produce 350,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023, approximately 3% higher than in 2022. Along with gas, the company produces a large amount of condensate. Condensate usually trades at a premium to WTI and a much higher premium to WCS (Western Canadian Select) oil, which many Canadian oil producers receive. This helps bring in higher revenue and margins compared with those of peers. Almost 40% of its production is liquids-weighted (oil+ condensate+ natural gas liquids).

Financial growth

Thanks to higher oil and gas prices, energy-producing companies have seen massive financial growth since the pandemic. ARX is no exception. For the last 12 months, it reported free cash flows of $2.2 billion, marking momentous 131% growth compared to 2022.

ARC Resources will release its Q4 2022 earnings next month. It will be interesting to see how lower gas prices during the quarter impact its financial growth. Notably, its larger proportion of revenues from oil and condensate will likely make it less vulnerable to falling gas prices.

The oil and gas producer plans to allocate 50%–100% of its free cash flow to shareholder returns, after achieving its deleveraging target last year. Driven by excess free cash flow last year, energy companies repaid debt in the last two years. Now that their balance sheets have achieved a superior financial position, much of the incremental cash will go towards higher dividends or buybacks.

Dividends

ARX pays a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, indicating an annualized yield of 3.8%. Along with dividends, share repurchases will likely help the stock price, ultimately boosting shareholder returns. ARX has bought back 13% of its total outstanding shares since September 2021. The lower share count boosts the company’s per-share earnings and increases existing investors’ claims on dividends.

Total returns

ARX stock has returned 18% in the last 12 months, while peer TSX energy names have returned 35%. A larger drawdown in gas prices has led to this underperformance. Since the pandemic, energy names have notably outperformed broader markets.

This year as well, oil and gas-producing companies will likely outperform due to their earnings growth visibility and relatively lower inflation pressures.

Valuation

ARX stock looks appealing once again from a valuation standpoint after its recent fall. It is currently trading at a free cash flow yield of 18%, higher than peers’ average of 16%. On the price-to-earnings front, it is currently trading at 4x and looks undervalued.

Should you buy ARX stock?

Natural gas prices could remain weak in the short term, weighing on gas producer stocks. However, the latter half of 2023 could be encouraging for gas investors as supply concerns, particularly in Europe, start sending prices north again. ARX is a fundamentally attractive name driven by its strong asset quality, strengthening balance sheet, and earnings growth prospects.

Should you invest $1,000 in Fortis right now?

Before you buy stock in Fortis, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor Canada analyst team just identified what they believe are the Top Stocks for 2025 and Beyond for investors to buy now… and Fortis wasn’t one of them. The Top Stocks that made the cut could potentially produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider MercadoLibre, which we first recommended on January 8, 2014 ... if you invested $1,000 in the “eBay of Latin America” at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $20,697.16!*

Stock Advisor Canada provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month – one from Canada and one from the U.S. The Stock Advisor Canada service has outperformed the return of S&P/TSX Composite Index by 29 percentage points since 2013*.

See the Top Stocks * Returns as of 3/20/25

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.  Fool contributor Vineet Kulkarni has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Confidently Navigate Market Volatility: Claim Your Free Report!

Feeling uneasy about the ups and downs of the stock market lately? You’re not alone. At The Motley Fool Canada, we get it — and we’re here to help. We’ve crafted an essential guide designed to help you through these uncertain times: "5-Step Checklist: How to Prepare Your Portfolio for Volatility."

Don't miss out on this opportunity for peace of mind. Just click below to learn how to receive your complimentary report today!

Get Our Free Report Today

More on Energy Stocks

data analyze research
Energy Stocks

Here’s How Many Shares of Hydro One Stock You Should Own for $2,000 in Yearly Dividends

This energy stock doesn't just offer major dividends but a stable future, even within the energy sector.

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Energy Stocks

Enbridge Stock: Buy, Hold, or Sell Now?

Enbridge recently dropped $5 per share. Is the stock now oversold?

Read more »

A plant grows from coins.
Energy Stocks

2 Discounted Dividend Stocks With Significant Growth Potential

If you’re in search of income and capital appreciation in the long run, here are two discounted Canadian dividend stocks…

Read more »

Senior uses a laptop computer
Energy Stocks

Here’s How Investors Can Turn $15,000 in a TFSA Into $235,000

Energy stocks aren't created equal, and this one might be one of the best of the batch.

Read more »

A red umbrella stands higher than a crowd of black umbrellas.
Dividend Stocks

3 Reasons I’m Considering Enbridge Stock for a $5,000 Investment This April

I'm considering Enbridge stock to provide some defensive appeal and a juicy dividend to my long-term portfolio.

Read more »

Oil industry worker works in oilfield
Energy Stocks

CNQ Stock: Buy, Hold, or Sell Now?

CNRL is down 35% in the past year. Is CNQ stock now oversold?

Read more »

Canadian dollars in a magnifying glass
Dividend Stocks

Young Investors: How I’d Allocate $10,000 for Long-Term Potential

Young Canadians can achieve financial independence faster by saving and investing early.

Read more »

canadian energy oil
Energy Stocks

How I’d Position $7,000 in This Canadian Energy Stock for 2025 Growth Potential

Tourmaline, Canada's low-cost and largest natural gas producer, is benefiting from strong industry fundamentals.

Read more »