Loblaw: How Canada’s Largest Food Retailer Is Evolving

Loblaw (TSX:L) is poised for higher margins ahead.

| More on:

The grocery business in Canada is particularly comfortable right now. These companies have successfully passed on higher costs of food and essentials to consumers. Now that inflation is easing, they could be in for a period of higher margins. 

Over the past year, Loblaw Companies (TSX:L), Canada’s largest retailer, has evolved alongside these trends. Now, investors should take a closer look at the stock to see if it fits their portfolio. 

Inflation hedge

Food prices have skyrocketed in recent years. The average Canadian grocery bill is 21% higher than three years ago, according to the latest data from Stats Canada. Prices are up 8.9% over the past year alone. 

Food isn’t the only thing that’s more expensive. Fuel, household products, pharmaceuticals and alcohol have all seen a surge over this period. Simply put, everything on Loblaw’s shelves has a bigger price sticker in 2023 than it did in 2020. 

However, the company has managed to pass these costs along to the consumer and absorbed none of the impacts. The company registered a gross profit margin of 31.3% in the first three months of 2023. The margin was 31.1% in the same period last year.  In other words, the company has pricing power.

That pricing power stems from its market dominance. Loblaw (and all the various companies within this conglomerate) controls roughly 28% of the Canadian grocery market. This gives it leverage over consumers, who have few other options for their necessary household spending. 

This leverage also helps to sustain prices when costs are falling.

Higher margins

Wholesale prices — the prices a grocery chain like Loblaw would pay to acquire products — have been dropping for several months. The price for chicken on the wholesale market has dropped from $4.77 to $4.59 per kilogram between March 2022 and May 2023. Similarly, egg prices were lowered by 14 cents per dozen by the Egg Farmers of Ontario in January. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are down from last year, which makes transporting these items cheaper. 

These cost savings are only passed along to consumers if grocery chains indulge in aggressive discounts and price wars. However, when one entity holds 28% of the market, there is less incentive to pass these cost savings along to consumers quickly. 

That’s why I expect higher margins at Loblaw in the months ahead. Investors should keep an eye on better profits and, perhaps, dividend boosts in the months ahead. 

Valuation

Despite these tailwinds, Loblaw stock is down 2.9% year to date. The stock now trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 and offers a 1.5% dividend yield

It’s undervalued, given its position in the market and robust earnings growth. Investors should add it to their safe-investment watch list.

Bottom line

Loblaw dominates Canada’s grocery market. It has passed on higher costs to consumers quickly but may not be so quick to pass savings in wholesale prices. That’s why I expect better margins and higher dividends in the year ahead. Keep an eye on this stock. 

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Vishesh Raisinghani has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Investing

The virtual button with the letters AI in a circle hovering above a keyboard, about to be clicked by a cursor.
Tech Stocks

Emerging Canadian AI Companies With Big Potential

These tech stocks are paving the way to an AI-filled future, but still offer enough growth ahead for a strong…

Read more »

Young Boy with Jet Pack Dreams of Flying
Tech Stocks

Is Constellation Software Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for 2025?

CSU stock has long been a strong option for high growth, high value stocks. But are there now too many…

Read more »

rising arrow with flames
Investing

2 Riskier Stocks With High Potential for Canadian Investors in November

Risky stocks such as Well Health Technologies have the potential to provide life-changing long-term returns.

Read more »

hand stacks coins
Dividend Stocks

3 Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stocks You Can Buy and Hold for a Decade

These three high-yield dividend stocks still have some work to do, but each are in steady areas that are only…

Read more »

senior man and woman stretch their legs on yoga mats outside
Dividend Stocks

TFSA: 2 Canadian Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever

Here are 2 TFSA-worthy Canadian stocks. Which one is a good buy for your TFSA today?

Read more »

Canada day banner background design of flag
Investing

Got $500? 5 Top Canadian Stocks to Buy and Hold

These top Canadian stocks have solid fundamentals with potential to outperform the benchmark index by a wide margin.

Read more »

man touches brain to show a good idea
Energy Stocks

1 No-Brainer Energy Stock to Buy With $500 Right Now

Should you buy a cyclical energy stock at its decade-high? Probably not. But read this before you make a decision.

Read more »

Asset Management
Stocks for Beginners

TFSA: 4 Canadian Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever

Thinking about what to buy with the new TFSA contribution space in 2025? These four Canadian stocks are worth holding…

Read more »