Where Will OpenText Stock Be in 1 Year?

OpenText (TSX:OTEX) stock’s uncertain future: AI potential versus stagnant growth over the next 12 months

| More on:
The virtual button with the letters AI in a circle hovering above a keyboard, about to be clicked by a cursor.

Source: Getty Images

Canadian enterprise information management software giant OpenText (TSX:OTEX) has struggled to retain investors’ interest over the past year, with its stock price declining 18% despite the company’s efforts to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into its product portfolio. Management is upbeat about the company’s prospects for the second half of its financial year 2025, which ends in June next year. However, a key question arises from the technology stock’s investor base: Where could OpenText stock be a year from now?

It’s one of a few Canadian tech stocks that could easily have passed as an AI stock trade with potential to generate positive returns for 2024. Yet, OpenText stock grossly underperformed the market during a time when several global AI stocks richly rewarded their investors. With falling interest rates, expanding AI adoption rates, and increasing competition in the enterprise software space, the next 12 months could be an interesting, yet challenging time, for OpenText’s share price.

A mature business lacking organic growth

OpenText, a mature business, has seen little to no organic growth in recent years, with some marginal sales declines during some quarters. For example, organic revenue shrank by 1.8% year-over-year to US$1.3 billion during the most recent quarter that ended in September. The business is struggling to find decent growth, investors are concerned, and OpenText’s stock has given up nearly all of its 90% capital gain temporarily achieved over the past decade.

While OpenText has a reputation as a disciplined acquirer, using mergers and acquisitions to expand its product portfolio and customer base, its recent divestment of a high-margin AMC business recently acquired with Micro Focus suggests the company is now focused on enhancing its financial flexibility while returning capital to shareholders.

The company is returning a record US$570 million to shareholders this year through share repurchases and growing dividends. While share buybacks reduce outstanding shares and can prop up OpenText’s stock price, they also signal a mature business with limited revenue and earnings growth prospects.

Faced with a limited investment opportunities set, a declining business’s management would rather give back capital to shareholders so they can deploy it somewhere else for more lucrative returns than attempt to reinvest the cash flow into internal projects with lacklustre return profiles.

If OpenText continues to generate positive free cash flow during the next year (and it most likely will), the company will most likely continue to return more capital to shareholders through share repurchases rather than reinvest it in projects with low returns – unless AI products revive demand growth.

That said, something is cooking within OpenText’s product portfolio.

Positive signs for OpenText stock

On a positive note, OpenText’s cloud contract durations are expanding to four years or longer on new deals, and the company has improved its cost containment and efficiency, leading to a higher adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) margin of 35%. Additionally, after signing on 20 customers for AI-related products during the past quarter, the company expects a strong second half of fiscal year 2025 as it rolls out the Titanium X project’s new AI-powered offerings.

OpenText could grow its sales traction next year as its developers polish up new AI agents while demand growth gathers momentum.

Challenges remain

However, management’s revenue guidance for the Fiscal Year 2025 implies only 1% potential annual growth to between US$5.3 billion and US$5.4 billion. Insiders remain cautious and conservative in their numerical projections. New AI product offerings may potentially fail to lift the business into a new growth mode during the next 12 months.

The company faces strong competition in its core markets with the likes of a Copilot-powered Microsoft, DropBox, and other enterprise content solutions providers offering a significant challenge to its flagship products.

Investor takeaway

Generative AI has been a focus for OpenText, but the company’s organic revenue growth has yet to take off. While management is optimistic, the next 12 months may see OpenText stock trading sideways as investors assess the company’s progress in profitably growing its sales. Some investors may opt to sell OTEX stock for tax loss harvesting.

That said, a return to positive organic revenue growth could propel OTEX stock to double-digit gains in the next year. In the meantime, new investors holding the stock will benefit from a healthy 3.6% dividend yield.

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Brian Paradza has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Dropbox and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Dividend Stocks

Electricity transmission towers with orange glowing wires against night sky
Dividend Stocks

The Best Telecom Stock to Buy Before 2025

Choosing the safest stock from a decimated sector can be tricky, but if there is a reasonable chance of full…

Read more »

hand stacking money coins
Dividend Stocks

Top Canadian Stocks to Buy Now for Long-Term Growth

These stocks could deliver nice gains in the coming years.

Read more »

gas station, convenience store, gas pumps
Dividend Stocks

3 Reasons to Buy Alimentation Couche-Tard Stock Like There’s No Tomorrow

From capital-appreciation potential to resilience against weak markets, certain real stocks are well positioned for most Canadian portfolios.

Read more »

TFSA (Tax-Free Savings Account) on wooden blocks and Canadian one hundred dollar bills.
Dividend Stocks

TFSA Income: Create Passive Income That’ll Last a Lifetime

Passive income is incredibly easy to create. All you need is a solid, diversified investment and a TFSA!

Read more »

A worker gives a business presentation.
Dividend Stocks

3 of the Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Passive Income

Investors are searching for reliable dividend-growth stocks to add to their self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account.

Read more »

dividend growth for passive income
Dividend Stocks

These 2 Simple Index Funds Could Turn $1,000 a Month Into $14,400

BMO Equal Weight Banks ETF (TSX:ZEB) offers significant income potential.

Read more »

Trans Alaska Pipeline with Autumn Colors
Dividend Stocks

Is Pembina Pipeline Stock a Buy for its 4.8% Dividend Yield?

Pembina Pipeline is one of Canada's great dividend stocks with a 4.8% yield. Are you wondering if it is a…

Read more »

stocks climbing green bull market
Dividend Stocks

A Top Investor Says This Strategy Outperforms 95% of Fund Managers

Buying Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) cheaply would probably work out well.

Read more »