First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) has had a rocky ride over the last year. And 2025 doesn’t look like it’s going to be smooth sailing, either. For long-term investors, the big question is whether it’s better to hang on, jump in, or walk away. The answer depends on how much uncertainty you can stomach and what kind of risk you’re comfortable with. There’s a lot to like about First Quantum’s long-term prospects, but there are also some big clouds on the horizon.
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Into earnings
Let’s start with where things stand. The company is one of the largest copper producers in the world and has mining operations spanning Africa, Australia, and Latin America. It’s well known for its Cobre Panamá mine, which was a major growth driver until recently.
In the stock’s latest earnings report, covering the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, net earnings attributable to shareholders came in at $99 million or $0.12 per share. That was down from $325 million in Q3. Revenue also slipped to US$1.31 billion, mostly due to lower production and weaker copper prices. Copper production fell to 111,602 tonnes from 116,883 tonnes the previous quarter, and C1 cash costs rose to US$1.68 per pound. That’s a tough combo, with less product sold at a lower price with higher costs.
What happened?
A big reason for the drop was the shutdown of the Cobre Panamá mine. Following protests and legal disputes in Panama, First Quantum was forced to suspend operations late last year. That mine alone accounted for over 40% of the company’s copper output. For now, the site is in “preservation and safe management” mode, and the TSX stock is working with the Panamanian government to resolve the situation.
This has naturally shaken investor confidence. The stock is down about 50% from its 2023 highs at writing. Even with the recent rebound in copper prices, concerns over political risk and production uncertainty continue to weigh on it. Analysts have slashed earnings forecasts for both 2024 and 2025. According to recent projections, earnings could fall 12.9% in 2024 and 14.1% in 2025 compared to earlier expectations.
Not all doom and gloom
But there are reasons for optimism if you’re thinking about the long term. First Quantum has taken steps to secure its financial footing. As of writing, it had US$1.6 billion in liquidity and has hedged about 50% of expected copper sales for 2025. That should help it weather some of the pricing volatility that has shaken the industry. The TSX stock is also moving forward with its S3 Expansion project at the Kansanshi mine in Zambia. This initiative is expected to significantly boost copper production and support future growth, even without Cobre Panamá.
It’s also worth noting that copper demand isn’t going away. In fact, it’s likely to increase. As the world shifts toward electric vehicles, renewable energy, and electrification more broadly, copper will play a central role. First Quantum is positioned to benefit from this demand over the next decade — especially once its Zambian expansion is complete and assuming Cobre Panamá eventually returns to full capacity.
Bottom line
So, is First Quantum a buy, sell, or hold? If you already own it and believe in the long-term need for copper, it might make sense to hold it. The fundamentals remain strong if management can navigate the current turbulence. But if you’re looking for a near-term rebound or low-risk exposure to copper, this might not be the best pick right now. On the flip side, for those with a high tolerance for risk and a long time horizon, First Quantum could be a contrarian bet worth considering.
In the end, this is a story of high stakes. First Quantum has strong assets, skilled management, and a place in a critical sector. But until there’s clarity on Cobre Panamá and a more stable copper pricing environment, the TSX stock is going to remain volatile. For now, it’s less about what First Quantum is and more about what it could become — that is, if the pieces fall into place.
